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Is this time different?
A roaring 20s will require a much stronger economic recovery from Covid than from the global financial crisis. What are the chances?
Apr 19
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David Skilling
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Is this time different?
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Global briefing: Higher for longer/ Fault lines/ Excess capacity/ ASEAN/ Global economic fragmentation
Insights on global economic and geopolitical developments
Apr 12
•
David Skilling
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Global briefing: Higher for longer/ Fault lines/ Excess capacity/ ASEAN/ Global economic fragmentation
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Escalating US fiscal risks
The UK 'Truss shock' provides insight into the growing risks of the unsustainable US fiscal path causing a global financial shock
Apr 5
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David Skilling
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Escalating US fiscal risks
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March 2024
Global briefing: Fragmentation/ World trade/ Military spending/ UK Labour/ Israel
Insights on global economic and geopolitical developments
Mar 28
•
David Skilling
2
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Global briefing: Fragmentation/ World trade/ Military spending/ UK Labour/ Israel
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Geopolitical shocks and shifts
Beyond managing exposures to geopolitical shocks, firms, investors, and governments need to position for structural geopolitical shifts
Mar 22
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David Skilling
3
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Geopolitical shocks and shifts
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Global briefing: Nowhere to hide/ Japan normalisation/ US debt & politics/ Gold & regime change/ Dutch exit
Insights on global economic and geopolitical developments
Mar 15
•
David Skilling
1
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Global briefing: Nowhere to hide/ Japan normalisation/ US debt & politics/ Gold & regime change/ Dutch exit
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China shakes the world
The spillovers from China’s growth model will create stresses across the global economy, with economic and geopolitical implications
Mar 8
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David Skilling
3
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China shakes the world
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Global briefing: Antipodean inflation/ Fracturing global institutions/Trump update/ Dr Copper/ Emerging markets
Insights on global economic and geopolitical developments
Mar 1
•
David Skilling
1
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Global briefing: Antipodean inflation/ Fracturing global institutions/Trump update/ Dr Copper/ Emerging markets
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February 2024
Productivity, inflation, & geopolitics
Structural drivers of higher inflation will be offset by strengthening productivity growth, but with significant variation across economies
Feb 23
•
David Skilling
3
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Productivity, inflation, & geopolitics
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Global briefing: Chinese deflation/ Ukraine/ India rising/ Growth strengthening/ Secular stagnation
Insights on global economic and geopolitical developments
Feb 16
•
David Skilling
2
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Global briefing: Chinese deflation/ Ukraine/ India rising/ Growth strengthening/ Secular stagnation
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Geopolitics & macro policy
History shows that big power geopolitical rivalry shapes fiscal and monetary policy: expect more expansive macro policy
Feb 9
•
David Skilling
13
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Geopolitics & macro policy
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Global briefing: Growth acceleration?/ Chinese freefall/ Rumours of war/ Populism/ AUKUS
Insights on five global developments that matter this week.
Feb 2
•
David Skilling
4
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Global briefing: Growth acceleration?/ Chinese freefall/ Rumours of war/ Populism/ AUKUS
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