Beyond the US
Beyond the economic & political disruption in the US, ten recent developments around the world provide insights on emerging global dynamics.
Over the past few weeks, global eyes have been fixed on DC and Mar-a-Lago for the latest statements from the Trump Administration: this past week it has been tariff threats to Canada and Mexico, the initial shots in the US/China trade wars, the Panama Canal, proposals for a US sovereign wealth fund, Gaza, and much more. Following and interpreting these developments has kept me busy: advising clients on what to take seriously – and what not to; what might be to come; and how to position.
My assessment remains that the second Trump term will be more disruptive and consequential than the first Trump term, as the US increasingly acts as a revisionist power. This will have material implications for firms, investors, and for governments: the effects on equity, rates, and currency markets as well as national economic outlooks are already evident.
But the world is more than the US. And global developments elsewhere over the past month are instructive for understanding the emerging world. Th…