Looking to 2025

There is high potential for economic and geo/political disruption in 2025. Ten developments in December provide a sense of what to expect.

As is normal at this time of the year, I have been wading through a small mountain of 2025 outlook documents. As is also normal, there is a high degree of clustering – and path dependence – in these forecasts: common themes include ongoing US exceptionalism; a muted outlook for Europe/UK; and some caution on China.

Much of this consensus is sensible, but it discounts the potential for economic, political, and geopolitical dislocation: at-scale disruptions that affect economies and markets in material ways. My assessment is that there is a high likelihood of significant economic and geo/political turbulence in 2025, as global regime change strengthens – reinforced by a second Trump term, which I think will be more consequential than the first term.

Structural geopolitical pressures will continue to build, with important implications for the functioning of the global economy; and domestic politics across many countries will be turbulent – with material economic and commercial consequences…