Nowhere to hide

The world at the end of March is a very different place than in January; and this is only the start of disruptive change in the global economic & geopolitical system.

The world at the end of March is a very different place than in mid-January; from changes to the global economic outlook to the shape of geopolitical relations. The US is friendlier with historical rivals than with traditional partners, left wing parties are raising defence spending, right wing parties are removing limitations on public debt, and more. And this is only the start of a reordering of the global economic and geopolitical system.

Much of this is due to the policies of the Trump Administration, as well as the responses by other countries. The next several years will be a highly disruptive, consequential period. And unlike the first Trump Administration, there will be nowhere to hide – from tariffs to the restructuring of security arrangements.

This note selects ten recent developments that provide insights into the nature of these global changes.

I have prepared two longer-form papers to support client discussions. The first paper provides an assessment of the core ideas and i…