Making your own luck

Small advanced economies provide useful perspectives on responding to a disruptively changing global economic and geopolitical context

There has been an avalanche of economic and geopolitical news over the past several weeks. From reciprocal tariffs to the role of the USD and changing geopolitical relations, the world is being rapidly reshaped. Decision-makers need to focus on the lasting structural changes amidst this turbulence, and the emerging opportunities as well as the risks. There is no going back.

Over the past few weeks, our clients have received notes with actionable insights on aspects of this disruptively changing world:

• The Trump Administration’s economic agenda: beyond the noise, there are some core instincts that are shaping a far-reaching reset of US economic policy and global engagement.

• The structural outlook for the USD: geo/political dynamics are intersecting with economic dynamics to create a new USD regime: less exorbitant privilege and a weaker USD.

• The outlook for US tariffs: Expect tariffs to remain at roughly their 90-day pause levels (ex China); but tariffs will still be costly and disrupti…