Winners & losers in a changing global economy

The experiences of small economy hubs – from Dubai to Ireland, Hong Kong, Singapore, & Switzerland – highlight the impact of a changing global economy

‘In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king’, Erasmus

I’ve been continuing my post-Covid travels to small economies.  I’ve been in Dubai (again) and Switzerland over the past week (I am writing this note from a high speed train back from Basel to Amsterdam).  And I was in Ireland a few weeks ago and Singapore a couple of months back. 

These small economies are all significant nodes in the global economy, and are valuable bellwethers for the health and functioning of the global economy. 

Regular readers will know that I remain relatively positive on globalisation; it is changing in shape more than unwinding.  There are many frictions and costs, but merchandise trade is as likely to be diverted as destroyed.  And growth in services, notably digital trade, continues to be strong.  This is reflected in the relatively strong economic performance of many small economies, from Singapore to Ireland.

Of course, the global outlook is not so positive.  The latest IMF World Economic Outlook,