When the tide goes out

Weaker world trade growth adds zero sum dynamics to the structural shifts underway in the global economic & political system.

After resilient growth through the pandemic, world trade flows are slowing – reflecting a slowing global economy.  And as the G20 meetings in Bali last week demonstrated – as well as other recent corporate and political developments – firms and governments are continuing to position for a reshaped global economic and political system. 

But the ebbing global economic tide may make some of these structural shifts more challenging to navigate.

Global slowdown

Global trade flows are beginning to weaken.  Monthly growth in the CPB world trade series has been decelerating through 2022, although it remains positive (to August).  More recent estimates from the Kiel Institute also show slowing, but still positive, growth.

However, recent data for many Asian exporting economies, manufacturing powerhouses that provide a useful bellwether for the strength of world trade, paint a weaker picture.  South Korean exports are contracting, as are exports from Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore.  And China’s …