Stress testing the world

The stresses of the past few years have highlighted the strengths & weaknesses of countries in a period of regime change

The disruptive events over the past three years – from the pandemic to the invasion of Ukraine and the structural shift of the global economy onto a wartime footing – have placed deep pressure on countries around the world. 

War and other shocks illuminate the strengths and weaknesses of political systems in ways that are not apparent during normal, less turbulent conditions.  Ukraine, for example, has performed remarkably under unimaginable pressure.

So at the start of the year, this note discusses how different countries have been affected by this acute stress; and how well placed they are for the economic and political regime change underway. 

United States

Political polarisation in the US has weakened social cohesion and institutions, and caused decision-making gridlock.  The US has been in a close race between its macro dysfunction and its micro-level innovation and dynamism.

Indeed, the US had a bad pandemic – with poor health outcomes – largely due to this political context.  But ov…