Shifting sands
My travels in Europe, the Middle East, & North Africa this week showed variation in economic outlook, as well as in positioning for a new global regime
I have been on the road again, as events and clients begin to return to in-person engagement (hence the 48 hour delay in sending out this note). I wrote this note from a busy Cairo Airport, after 10 days travelling from the Netherlands to London, Dubai, and Aswan.
This note offers some reflections from these different corners of the world, in terms of the near-term trajectory as well as the way in which different countries/regions are responding to a changing global economic and political context.
Multi-speed world
In the immediate term, there is marked variation in the economic outlook. Europe is gloomy, with growth slowing and inflation rising – largely on high energy prices (despite the drop over the past few weeks). These challenges are particularly acute in the UK, with a very demanding agenda for the new Prime Minister. London felt soggy, with the sombre mood reinforced by the Queen’s passing: the economic outlook is subdued, the GBP is at a 35 year low against the USD, and th…