Prepare to be surprised

Forecasts for 2022 – from inflation to Ukraine – were generally off the mark. So in a world of deep uncertainty, what might surprise in 2023?

This is my last note for the year. Thanks for reading, I hope that you have enjoyed them.  I look forward to continuing the conversation in the New Year. 

‘It´s tough to make predictions, especially about the future’, variously attributed to Niels Bohr, Yogi Berra, & others

Last week’s note offered a summary view on the economic and political dynamics that will shape 2023 – based on a paper that Mike O’Sullivan and I wrote (available on request by reply email or contact@landfallstrategy.com).  We discussed the ways in which structural economic and political dynamics would play out in the year ahead. 

But outlooks for 2022 were quickly overtaken by events, most obviously Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February.  So to reflect the deep uncertainty that characterises the world, our paper on 2023 concluded with some ‘wildcards’.  These wildcards are not predictions, but (in our view) plausible events.  If we have learned anything over the past few years, it is that we should be prepared fo…