Positioning for Trump

The US Presidential election is the single biggest political risk of 2024; and firms, investors, & governments need to position for the consequences

This year’s US Presidential election is the single biggest political risk of 2024, with global economic and geopolitical implications.  Three years on from the storming of Capitol Hill on 6 January 2021, we are odds-on for a second Biden v Trump Presidential election.  Iowa and New Hampshire go to the polls over the next fortnight to kick off primary season.

This note assesses the likelihood of a second Trump win; the economic and geopolitical implications that would follow; and some thoughts on how governments, firms, and investors, should position.

Likelihood

I continue to think it unlikely that Mr Trump will win a second term, although it is more likely than it was a year ago: I have revised my assessment up, from 20-25% to 35-40% now.  This probability is sufficiently material that firms, investors, and governments should be actively considering how to position for a second Trump Presidency.

However, this is still more a possible than a probable outcome.  To start, Mr Trump does not h…