Peak West?

The West has been coherent in response to Russia, but faultlines are emerging between the US & other Western-oriented countries. 2022 may be peak West.

There has been striking coherence in the Western-led response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  Economic sanctions on Russia and military/financial support for Ukraine have been consistent across the West (and friends); NATO is being expanded and strengthened; and there has been a collective stiffening of the Western spine with respect to China, from technology to Taiwan. 

Countries have been making sharper choices on alignment.  However, the emerging world will be messier than a binary framing of a Western-led bloc and a China-led bloc.  A multipolar world of overlapping blocs is more likely. 

Indeed, recent political developments in the US and elsewhere suggest limits on the coherence of the West.  It may be that 2022 is the high water mark of the West: ‘peak West’.

America First

This week’s US mid-term elections saw a better than expected showing for the Democrats, and a bad night for Mr Trump’s MAGA wing of the GOP.  I continue to think Mr Trump won’t run again; and certainly that he …