On the agenda for 2022

My take on the issues that will shape the agenda for 2022, from Covid & inflation, to geopolitics, globalisation, & climate change (& more)

This first note of 2022 provides my assessment of the big economic and political issues, trends, and risks in what is likely to be another bumpy, fast-paced year.

Covid doesn’t end

The past two years have been powerfully shaped by Covid, and Covid will also play a major role in 2022. Although the more contagious but seemingly less severe omicron variant looks to be crowding out delta, we should not expect a ‘normal’ (pre-Covid) year in 2022 across advanced economies. 

Endemic Covid, with new variants likely, means some ongoing domestic and border restrictions as well as regular booster programmes (Israel has just started a 4th shot programme).  The response to omicron reminds that reopening will be a stop-start process.  This will create ongoing disruptions to supply chains, labour markets, and exposed sectors, even if the economic costs will be less severe than in 2020 and 2021.

It is the countries that have performed best through the pandemic that will likely lag in opening up because …