Is this time different?

A roaring '20s will require a much stronger economic recovery from Covid than from the global financial crisis. What are the chances?

The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook, released on Tuesday, marked up world GDP growth for 2024 by 0.1% relative to their January forecast, largely on the basis of stronger US growth.  The US (2.7%) is expected to grow much faster than the EU (0.8%) and Japan (0.9%) in 2024, and to sustain a performance edge going forward.  China held steady at 4.6% and 4.1% for 2023 and 2024 respectively.

The last few IMF World Economic Outlooks have marked up growth forecasts.  But the broader trend is down.  World GDP growth is expected to average around 3.2% over the next several years, down ~0.3% from its average from 2011-2019.  Growth rates across advanced economies and emerging markets are both expected to soften.