Global briefing: World trade/ Middle East/ Blinken in China/ Higher for longer/ Europe

Insights on global economic and geopolitical developments

In this week’s global briefing:

1. World trade recovering: World trade is growing again, with further strengthening likely – positive news for economies and firms that are exposed to global trade flows.

2. Middle East escalation: the longer the conflict in Gaza continues, the higher the risk of regional escalation. But oil prices suggest escalation risks are limited.

3. Blinken in China: Further US/China diplomacy is underway this week, but the relationship is in managed decline - the economies are decoupling.

4. Higher for longer: Interest rates remain under pressure because of persistent inflation: but the likelihood of policy rate increases is limited.

5. European competitiveness: Europe is deeply challenged by economic and geopolitical developments. It is moving gradually, but watch for the Draghi report.

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