Global briefing: US v China/ Global supply chains/ German fiscal mess/ Kissinger/ Finland
Insights on five things that matter this week.
In this week’s global briefing:
1. US v China: China’s GDP convergence process towards the US has stalled, with the US >50% larger in nominal terms; contributing more GDP growth and import demand.
2. Global supply chains: Covid-era global supply chain disruptions have eased, but global supply chains are deeply exposed to geopolitical risks and climate change.
3. Germany’s fiscal mess: The legally-required German fiscal policy tightening will drag on German and European GDP growth, and compromise its growth potential.
4. Kissinger & small states: Big power rivalry is back as Kissinger’s obituaries are written: but different approaches are needed to managing strategic competition.
5. Finland: Finland is on the front-lines of tensions with Russia. In addition to increasing hybrid warfare, Finland’s trade share with Russia is at 80-year lows.
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