Global briefing: Nowhere to hide/ Japan normalisation/ US debt & politics/ Gold & regime change/ Dutch exit

Insights on global economic and geopolitical developments

In this week’s global briefing:

1. Nowhere to hide: Under either President Biden or Trump, US allies will find US market access more challenging - complicating the China de-risking agenda.

2. Japan normalisation: Per capita GDP growth is reasonable, inflation is (just) back, negative rates are ending, and equities have recovered to their 1989 peaks.

3. US debt & politics: Mr Biden’s 2025 budget proposal this week shows that US federal debt will continue to increase: there are not (yet) votes in fiscal discipline.

4. Gold & regime change: Record-high gold prices reflect a heightened global risk profile as well as a fragmenting global economy; interest rates are secondary.

5. Dutch exit: ASML and other Dutch firms are considering relocating activities in response to business environment concerns; a major risk for a small open economy.

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