Global briefing: Disrupted supply chains/ Inflation slowdown?/ Fiscal drag?/ Migration/ World trade bottoming out

Insights on five things that matter this week

Happy New Year! And welcome to my first note of 2024, in what will likely be another turbulent and consequential year.  As always, do get in touch if you would like to discuss any of these issues.

Many clients are undertaking strategy work at the start of the year.  Let me know if you would like some support in this context: delivering briefings on key economic, policy, business, and geopolitical dynamics; developing tailored scenarios; providing external stress-testing/review; and so on.  I’m at david.skilling@landfallstrategy.com

In this week’s global briefing:

1. Disrupted supply chains: The expanding conflict in the Middle East is creating risks to global supply chains and energy prices, with Europe particularly exposed.

2. Inflation slowdown?: Markets are pricing in rate cuts through 2024 as inflation slows; but a more complicated path is likely, with new inflation pressures emerging.

3. Fiscal drag?: Some fiscal stimulus will be withdrawn across many advanced economies, although wit…