Global briefing: Demography as destiny?/ Russian sanctions/ Small economies & big powers/ Currency statecraft/ Greece

Five notable things I’m watching this week

Demography as destiny?

Last week, China announced deaths > births in 2022 – the first annual population decline since 1961.  China’s population has likely peaked, and is forecast to reduce from 1.4 billion to 1.3 billion by 2050 and to under 800 million by 2100.  China’s working age population is shrinking even faster.  A few observations.

First, this will shape big power competition: a China with lower population growth will be smaller than otherwise (GDP, tax revenues), and will be less able to project power.  This will also limit its economic ability to overtake the US, particularly as the US population continues to grow.  And India will soon be (if not already) the largest country in the world.

Second, there will be economic and political challenges as China – and many other countries – manage the implications of an aging population.  This week, Japan’s PM Kishida warned of social dysfunction in Japan due to its rapidly aging population.  Note the political pushback to the tentative …