Global briefing: Chinese deflation/ Ukraine/ India rising/ Growth strengthening/ Secular stagnation

Insights on global economic and geopolitical developments

In this week's global briefing:

1. Chinese deflation: China is exporting deflation with negative CPI and PPP inflation, as well as negative export price growth. Expect a policy response.

2. Ukraine: Two years on from the invasion, the conflict is static. No resolution is likely before the US Presidential election, but then expect diplomatic movement.

3. India rising: There is a strong structural economic story to be told on India, with a diverging trajectory from China and increasing investor interest.

4. Economic strengthening: Despite regional variation, the global economic data at the start of 2024 is generally positive - suggesting economic momentum ahead.

5. Secular stagnation?: Concerns about secular stagnation are over, with a higher growth, higher rates world emerging as we exit the post-global financial crisis era.

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