Global briefing: Antipodean inflation/ Fracturing global institutions/Trump update/ Dr Copper/ Emerging markets

Insights on global economic and geopolitical developments

In this week’s global briefing:

1. Antipodean inflation: The RBNZ and RBA held policy rates this month. To the extent that these economies are canaries in the mine, expect a challenging last mile.

2. Fracturing global institutions: This week’s WTO and G20 meetings reflect the decline of multilateralism. Firms and investors need to adapt to a fragmented world.

3. Trump update: I still assess Mr Biden to beat Mr Trump in November. Firms and investors should be positioning for this election, including in no-regrets ways.

4. Dr Copper: The prices of industrial metals are consistent with (or are not inconsistent with) a resilient global growth outlook ahead.

5. Emerging market outlook: Emerging market growth models are deeply exposed to a new economic and geopolitical regime. Expect greater variation in outcomes.

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