Europe on the front lines

From Ukraine to trade sanctions, global economic & political pressures are playing out in Europe. The response will shape the global economic & political system.

Just over two years ago, I relocated from one end of Eurasia (Singapore) to the other (the Netherlands).  One reason for this move – after 11 fantastic years watching Asia and the world from Singapore – was to get a different perspective on global economic and political developments. 

And despite spending much of this period in varying forms of Covid lockdown, being in Europe has provided a good view on changing global economic and political dynamics. 

Although the centre of global economic gravity has been shifting inexorably towards Asia, and US/China is the single most important bilateral relationship, Europe sits on emerging fault lines in the global system. Dynamics at one end of Eurasia have clear echoes at the other.  There are two reasons for Europe’s exposures. 

Europe’s exposures

First, Europe is a highly open economy – with substantial exports and imports (outside of the EU27) as well as investment flows.  As a share of GDP, these international flows are significantly higher th…