Economic war of attrition

The war of attrition between Russia and Ukraine is as much economic as military; and the economic costs are growing

Over four months into the Russian invasion of Ukraine, what was expected by the Russians (and multiple foreign intelligence services) to be a lightning raid has turned into a grinding war of attrition.

Assessments vary in terms of how momentum on the battlefield is likely to change over time (see these pieces by military academic Lawrence Freedman and the Economist).  Some point to Russia’s superiority in raw power (ammunition, weaponry, soldiers) as a growing advantage over time relative to Ukraine, which has been taking heavy losses.  In contrast, others point to the arrival of sophisticated Western military equipment and the morale and capacity constraints facing Russia and suggest that momentum is with Ukraine.

First world economic war

But the outlook for the war between Russia and Ukraine is as much about economics as it is battlefield assessments: I have previously termed this ‘the first world economic war’.  There is a war of attrition in economic terms also, as countries weigh ri…