Doomed to choose

Countries are being forced to make hard choices as the global system fragments. Small states are at the sharp end of this.

‘We are doomed to choose and every choice may entail an irreparable loss’, Isaiah Berlin

Around the world, countries are making choices in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  From Europe and North America to the Asia Pacific, a broad group of countries have condemned Russia’s invasion as a breach of international law and imposed aggressive economic sanctions (‘the first world economic war’).

Russia’s invasion has crystallised the various challenges to the rules-based system, leading to fundamental changes in national positioning.  The German government, for example, is signalling a reversal of decades of foreign policy and energy strategy – admitting to naivete on Russia, and committing to strengthen energy independence and increase military spending (although delivering on this will be very demanding). 

The response to the invasion has also revealed the countries that are not aligning with the West.  In the UN vote to condemn Russia’s invasion, China and India abstained, as well …