A week where a decade happened

A week of remarkable events signals far-reaching global economic & political change ahead

‘There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen’, Vladimir Lenin

With apologies for quoting a Soviet dictator, it feels like something has snapped this week.  Amid the barbaric violence of the Russian regime, and remarkable Ukrainian courage and resistance, international economic and political transformations are underway that will reshape the world. 

My note last week suggested we have reached ‘the end of the beginning’ in transitioning to a new global regime, with the Russian invasion crystallising the scale of the challenge to the global system.  But events have moved much more quickly over the past week than I anticipated.

Russia has not so much been sanctioned as ejected from the mainstream of the global financial system: multiple Russian banks are being disconnected from SWIFT, and cannot engage with Western institutions; access of the Russian central bank to its reserves has been frozen; Western firms have withdrawn Russian access to payments sys…