Stormy weather, changing climate

Beyond the stormy economic forecasts in the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook, the data also capture structural changes underway in the global system

The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook, released on Tuesday, made for grim reading.  GDP growth was marked down again, inflation is expected to be more persistent, and financial stability risks are elevated. 

As the IMF Chief Economist noted:

The 2023 slowdown will be broad-based, with countries accounting for about one-third of the global economy poised to contract this year or next. The three largest economies, the United States, China, and the euro area will continue to stall. Overall, this year’s shocks will re-open economic wounds that were only partially healed post-pandemic. In short, the worst is yet to come and, for many people, 2023 will feel like a recession.

Forecast GDP growth for 2023 is 1.0% in the US, 0.5% in the Eurozone, 4.4% in China, and 2.7% globally.  And the IMF estimate a 25% likelihood that world GDP growth comes in below 2%, growth rates not seen over the past 40 years outside the global financial crisis and the pandemic. 

GDP growth rates were marked down signi…